Invasion of Ukraine Making U.S. Items More Expensive

Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, the international world has not only been on notice, but has been indirectly affected in ways that the general public may be oblivious to. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has confirmed at least 12,605 civilian deaths in Ukraine since the conflict began. This is in addition to the 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers that have perished since December of 2024 - according to the Ukrainian government. A joint investigation by BBC News Russian and Mediazona, an independent Russian media outlet, confirms at least 90,019 Russian military deaths as of early March 2025. 

"This is not just about Ukraine. This is about the future of the international order and the ability of one country, in this case Russia, to impose its will on another country by force," Serhii Plokhy, who is the director of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute and a professor of Ukrainian history states. 

Not only have there been a significant amount of deaths, but it’s created significant ripple effects throughout global food markets, leading to increased prices for common breakfast items specifically in United States grocery stores. As one of the world's major agricultural producers, Ukraine's reduced ability to export key commodities has disrupted supply chains and contributed to widespread inflation in food prices. 

Here are some of the major products that may continue to see an increase due to the continuing conflict in Ukraine. 

Grain Markets and Cereal Products

Ukraine has historically been known as Europe's "breadbasket," producing approximately 10% of global wheat exports and 15% of global corn exports. The conflict has severely limited Ukraine's ability to export these crucial commodities through its Black Sea ports. This disruption has driven up global grain prices, affecting everything from breakfast cereals to bread. Major food manufacturers have reported increased production costs, which they've partially passed on to consumers through higher retail prices.

Cooking Oils and Fats

Ukraine is also one of the world's largest producers of sunflower oil, accounting for roughly 50% of global exports before the conflict. With exports severely constrained, food manufacturers have been forced to seek alternatives like soybean and palm oil, driving up prices across all cooking oil categories. This has affected the cost of numerous breakfast items, from frozen waffles to breakfast pastries, as cooking oils are essential ingredients in many processed foods.

Dairy Products

While Ukraine isn't a major dairy exporter, the conflict has indirectly affected dairy prices through increased feed costs for dairy cattle. Higher grain prices have forced dairy farmers worldwide to pay more for animal feed, leading to increased production costs. These expenses have translated into higher prices for breakfast staples like milk, butter, and yogurt.

Energy Costs and Transportation

The conflict's impact on global energy markets has further complicated the situation. Increased fuel prices have raised transportation costs throughout the food supply chain. Additionally, higher natural gas prices have led to more expensive fertilizer production, creating additional cost pressures for farmers globally. These increased input costs ultimately contribute to higher consumer prices for breakfast foods.

Market Adaptations and Consumer Response

U.S. retailers and food manufacturers have implemented various strategies to manage these price pressures. Some have absorbed a portion of the increased costs to maintain customer loyalty, while others have reduced package sizes while keeping prices stable – a practice known as "shrinkflation." Consumers have responded by switching to store brands, buying in bulk when items are on sale, or choosing different breakfast alternatives.

Looking Forward

For U.S. consumers, understanding these global market dynamics helps explain why their morning meal has become more expensive. . As markets continue to adjust, maintaining awareness of these global connections helps consumers better understand and adapt to changing food costs. While markets have shown some signs of adaptation to the new global supply dynamics, breakfast costs remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels. The duration and severity of these price increases will likely depend on several factors, including the conflict's progression, global agricultural production patterns, and the development of alternative supply chains.